## Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decid

Question

Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. If the test predicts that there is no oil, what is the probability after the test that the land has oil?

0

1. The options are

A.

0.1698

B.

0.2217

C.

0.5532

D.

0.7660

2. Answer: The probability after the test that the land has oil is 0.09.

Explanation:

Let A is the event that the land has oil.

It is given that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. So,

The probability that the land has no oil is,

Let B is the event that the kit gives the accurate rate of indicating oil in the soil. So,

The probability that the kit gives the false result is,

Events A and B are two independent events and we have to find the probability that the last has oil and kit given false result.

Therefore, the if the test predicts that there is no oil, then the probability after the test that the land has oil is 0.09.